Daily Fantasy 

Week 12 Daily Fantasy Top Plays

Posted By: Paul Lipko

Daily Fantasy Sports. Everyone plays it. Some of us like the challenge, of budgeting the perfect lineup some of us like the freedom where our rosters can change week to week; unlike season long rosters where one bad trade or injury can ruin a season. Other players like the high stakes gambling aspect. There is something for everyone.

Every week hundreds of thousands of players go to sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo DFS, and others.This article is going to look at some top plays for Cash games, Tournament/GPP games, and Top Stacks of the Week on DraftKings for Week 12. This week I’m going to project one Thanksgiving game and one Sunday game for each position except TE.

Tournament/GPP

The goal of any tournament lineup is to score the most points, because tournaments are usually tens of thousands of players, with a very small pool of top cash prizes. On average, less than 25% of all players get paid, with some of them simply being a return on investment, which means you have less than a 1/4 chance to make a profit. With the odds already against you, you need the guys who will score the most points for the best price.

Quarterbacks:

#1 Ben Roethlisberger
Price: $7300
Projected: 19.04
Opponent: IND

“Big Ben” has absolutely shredded the Colts in their last two matchups, passing for 886 yards, 10 TD,and 0 INTs for an average of 37.7 DFK points per game. Both of those games were in Pittsburgh though, but this game is on the road where historically Roethlisberger plays less than average. On the plus side, this season the Colts have allowed 297 yards passing per game with 1.9 passing TD allowed per game. If Ben were to hit 300 yards, DraftKings rewards him with another 3 points that he is not projected for here. We have him at 287 yards. Ben costs a medium $7300 and our projections have him at $383 price per point. For anyone playing a Thanksgiving slate only that’s a steal (QB#2), but overall he is still one of the best plays on the entire weekend (QB#6) to score points you’re going to need in a tournament. His ceiling is sky high and he should eat on Thanksgiving night.

#2 Russell Wilson
Price: $6700
Projected: 18.74
Opponent: TB

Over his last three games he’s averaging over 300 yards passing with six passing touchdowns. He also caught a touchdown last week, and ran for a touchdown against Buffalo three weeks ago. He’s averaging 23.1 DFK points per game over that span against defenses that are better than Tampa Bay’s. At $353 price per point, his ceiling is better than ever. Even though he only has 35 yards rushing the last three weeks, he could easily top that on Sunday in one game, padding his points. Fun Fact: November is Russell Wilson’s best month of his career, posting 36 total TD with only 6 INT in 18 career games. He’s a dominating 15-3 overall with a career best 66.3 CMP% in the month. He’s got a 9.61 AY/A which is head and shoulders above his other months. Running on some of the best work of his career lately, Russell “Muscle Bussle” Wilson looks like a great bet for all tournaments this week.

Running Backs:

#1 Melvin Gordon III
Price: $7000
Projected: 19.46
Opponent: HOU

Coming off a bye week, the second year all-star back is running on fresh legs against a Texans defense who is playing on a short week after traveling from Mexico early Tuesday morning. That’s not even fair. Vince Wilfork is banged up and JJ Watt is out for the year. The Texans defense has been ample against the run, but MGIII isn’t an average back. MGIII is averaging an absolutely ridiculous 28.9 DFK over his last four months with 669 yards from scrimmage, two 100+ yard games, and 4 touchdowns. Costing only $7000 which is $1500-2000 less than back of equivalent projections, your opponents aren’t going to be able to catch up with you this week if you play our RB #3 this week. While his ownership should be high for this reason, you need to have him in your lineups this week.

#2 Ezekiel Elliott
Price: $8500
Projected: 19.19
Opponent: WAS

“Big Zek” is a freak. On a short week, that won’t matter against a Redskins defense that James Starks shredded in three quarters just two days ago. Think about that. James Starks put up 18 points in three quarters. The Redskins play Thursday afternoon, after just playing Sunday night. Who scheduled that?! Earlier this year, Big Zek put up 83 yards on 21 carries with a TD against Washington. We have him projected for over 89 yards rushing, with 2 rec and 25 yards receiving. The Redskins will be utterly gassed, and in a home game on a national holiday, I’m looking for MVP numbers from Ezekiel Elliott here. Even though he’s projected behind Le’Veon Bell on our Thanksgiving slate, most backs are. The game has a 51 O/U, with the public leaning 63% to the Over in the latest polling. That means a lot of scoring. Grab Zeke The Freak here and don’t look back. He won’t.

Wide Receivers:

#1 Antonio Brown
Price: $9200
Projected: 22.47
Opponent: IND

Not to be crude, but see: Roethlisberger, Ben. Both Ben and Brown are the elite QB/WR matchup in the NFL and with such a juicy matchup against a very bad Colts defense, this is the stack you need to take advantage of. Like Ben, Brown has killed the Colts in his last two games, totaling 18 receptions, 251 yards, and 4 TD’s for an average of 36.5 DFK per games over the last two years. Colts haven’t exactly made any significant changes to make anyone believe it will be different Thursday night. This is simple. Start Antonio Brown.

#2 Mike Evans
Price: $7500
Projected: 18.80
Opponent: SEA

I always like to roll the dice with cheap All-Pro talent, especially those that are matchup proof. Richard Sherman might be one of the best corners in the game, but he can be beat, and he has been beat. Watch the SEA@NYJ game from earlier this season to see what I mean. Marshall beat him twice, and those plays are all that matters in fantasy. Evans will have all the volume in the world, and this is in Tampa making it much easier for Winston to make changes at the line which are ni impossible in Seattle. I said it last week, and I’ll say it again, Mike Evans is one of the tallest and most physically gifted receivers in the sport and with a $399 point per price how are you not starting him this week? Don’t be afraid of Seattle’s defense and sell yourself short. Big Mike is scoring a touchdown this week, I’ll guarantee it.

Tight End:

Rob Gronkowski
Price: $6900
Projected: 16.96
Opponent: NYJ

Gronk eat turkey. Gronk beat Jets. Gronk spike. Even though he’s the most expensive TE on the whole week, there’s good reason for this. We don’t have any other TE projected over 15 points, and Gronk is almost at 17. He should be at full health this week and a top play for tournament plays where you simply need as many points as possible to taste that sweet, sweet honey. This is a heated division rivalry that bleeds red and green just in time for the holiday season to kick off this week. Having Gronk at $6900 is basically like having a WR1 for that price in terms of production. You’d take that every single day, right? If Gronk misses this game, fire up Delanie Walker against the Bears.

Cash Games (50/50’s, H2H)

The point of cash games is to finish in the top half of the prize pool, as everyone gets paid the same amount. Doesn’t matter if you’re 1st of 50th, you get the same, so the goal is just to get there. The goal is to get guys who will launch you over that line and guarantee a payday. The best kind of plays are high-risk/high-reward.

Quarterbacks:

#1 Dak Prescott
Price: $6300
Projected: 21.06
Opponent: WAS

Yes, Prescott is projected higher, and costs less than Big Ben. That’s why he’s our cash game guarantee for Thanksgiving slates. You’re going to want to load up on points in RB/WR in 50/50’s, and saving $1000 with Dak over Ben will give you a lot of flexibility. As I mentioned earlier, the WAS/DAL game is an O/U of 51, with many gamblers believing this to be a shoot out. Dak impressed everyone last week against Baltimore, topping 30 points, and he still only has 2 INT on the year. The Redskins defense is certainly better on paper than the Ravens with Josh Norman haunting the sidelines, but Dak Prescott is pure magic. The rookie is so calm under pressure. If you’re looking for low cost/high reward, this is easily the play on Thursday. Cousins hasn’t played well historically against Dallas in his career.

#2 Carson Palmer
Price: $5300
Projected: 18.07
Opponent: ATL

I apologize I”m going to be very, very lazy but there’s no reason to re-type everything when it remains valid in both season long and DFS. This is what I wrote about Palmer in my “Aces and Deuces” column this week:

“Palmer is coming off one of his worst games in a Cardinals uniform, and more recently he’s been just bad with 5 INT and has been sacked a whopping 18 times in the last four weeks. But you need to relax if you think he’s done. Four out of the last five years he’s been in the top 10 in yards per game at the end of the season, and he’s currently 5th in the NFL with 293.6 yards per game; which best mark ever! His touchdowns are down because his receivers can’t get open off the line and Bruce Arians fails to adjust for the opposition. Poor Bruce Arians gave himself chest pains this week, and I’d have them too if Michael Floyd and JJ Nelson dropped every pass they were targeted on. Not to mention when you have the best running back in the league, he tends to break massive touchdown runs taking away opportunities for Palmer to score. Over the last four years, the Atlanta Falcons have averaged being 26th out of 32 teams in total yards allowed, and they’re currently ranked 28th. With an offense that has never been worse than 10th in total yards since Carson Palmer has become QB, this matchup looks like a shootout”

At only $5300 is one of the best plays, period, but a must start in cash games. He’s $2000 less than Big Ben with the same upside. At $293 price per point, he is the best value in Week 12.

Running Backs:

#1 Rob Kelly
Price: $4300
Projected: 12.59
Opponent: DAL

You may think that projection is very low, but consider this… his projection is 2 full points higher than it was last week. He still only has a handful of games in his career, and while he’s looked good you need to have low expectations for FAT ROB. I love Fat Rob. I’ve had him on my season-long team for a few weeks, and watching that WAS/GB game was amazing. Twitter was on fire with great stats after he ripped the Packers to shreds. But Rob Kelly isn’t that good. The Packers quit. He’s still a great play, but not that good. Expect closer to 70 yards this week, but he should also score at least once. For $4300, he’s cheaper than he was last week! At only $342 price per point, he’s a great value play for cash games looking for guaranteed point elsewhere, only Gore and the Browns backs are a better value per point, but Gore is $900 more.. and you don’t want to play any Browns.

#2 DeMarco Murray
Price: $7700
Projected: 18.87
Opponent: CHI

Last two games against Chicago (2013 and 2014), he put up 50 rushing attempts for 325 yards with 11 receptions and a TD. Different team, different coach now, but do you think those averages are going to be different than now? The Bears are going to be trying to lose to improve their draft stock. If you’ve taken any of the above mentioned players in cash games to save your budget, this is where you’re going to reap those rewards. Murray is over $400 price per point, but he is absolutely rushing for more than 100 yards, even though we have him for only 80. That’s another 3 points guaranteed, dropping him all the way down to $352 price per. He’s our RB#5 this week. The Bears are who we thought they were. But Murray isn’t going to let them off the hook.

Wide Receivers:

#1 Quincy Enunwa
Price: $4100
Projected: 11.07
Opponent: NE

This is my first big reach, and it’s probably because I’m a Jets fan, but you need to trust the fans of teams to know players real upside, not the analysts. Okay, so look at this play. It’s a late afternoon home game, coming off a bye week, the Patriots are traveling west to east after the San Fran game, a huge division rival matchup on a holiday weekend and Enunwa has threatened WR2 status several times this season. At only $4100, his matchup with Logan Ryan is something you need to be aware and exploit. His ownership shouldn’t be more than 2% in any game. Bill Belichick has never respected slot guys, so he will address Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte and let the Jets try to use Enunwa to beat them on Sunday. There is no better option under $4500 this week in any slate.

#2 Cole Beasley
Price: $5500
Projected: 13.22
Opponent: WAS

The third Cowboys player to appear here, Beasley represents probably the single best “value” on the Thanksgiving slate. Antonio Brown costs $9200, Diggs is Questionable, Josh Norman will be on Dez Bryant, and you can’t trust any Lions receivers. Beasley doesn’t break the bank in yards, but he’s got 4 TD in his last 5 games, and is a good bet to grab another one this week. I have him in several lineups which has allowed me to fit in names like Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott, while still grabbing some quality points from Beasley. He’s one of the toughest as nails receivers in the league. He reminds me a lot of Wes Welker.

Tight End:

Travis Kelce
Price: $4000
Projected: 12.65
Opponent: DEN

Even though the Chiefs are playing the Broncos on Sunday Night, you can’t beat this price for our TE#6 this week. He’s running a $316 price per point, and even if Nick Foles sees snaps in this game, Kelce is the biggest threat to score for the Chiefs this week. Maclin is hurt/questionable, and Ware is going to see a lot of Von Miller. For $4000, hes $1500-2000 cheaper than the guys above him. Don’t expect a whole lot of points, but if you need a budget play, there is absolutely none better in upside.

Top Stacks

#1 Pittsburgh Steelers (Roethlisberger, Bell, Brown)
Steelers are going to destroy the Colts. They’re expected to combine for 64 DFK points. Stack them with the PIT D/ST and look for 70 DFK points in just four slots.

#2 Dallas Cowboys (Prescott, Elliott, Beasley, Witten)
They are not the stack if you’re going for a lot of points, I know what..? But this stack is VERY cost effective for a team that’s going to put points.

#3 New England Patriots (Brady, Blount, Edelman, Gronk)
Big rivalry game, with the Jets out of contention, Belichick will dial it up against Gang Green and run up the score as the Patriots try to grab home field advantage and a first round bye

Top Lineup (Thursday late-Monday night)

  • QB C. Palmer / $5300
  • RB M. Gordon III / $7000
  • RB M. Forte / $5500
  • WR L. Fitzgerald $7000
  • WR J. Matthews / $5000
  • WR J. Kerley / $3500
  • TE D. Walker / $4900
  • Flex L. Bell / $9000
  • D/ST Pittsburgh / $2800

Cost: $50,000

Top Lineup (Thursday ONLY)

  • QB B. Roethlisberger / $7300
  • RB L. Bell / $9000
  • RB R. Kelly / $4300
  • WR A. Brown / $9200
  • WR C. Beasley / $5500
  • WR A. Thielen / $4000
  • TE J. James / $2700
  • Flex F. Gore / $5200
  • D/ST Pittsburgh / $2800

Cost: $50,000

// Brought to you by Matt Davis of The Daily Fantasy Aces.

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