Week 2 Recap
Week 2 was basically a breakeven week for me. Up about $30 on DraftKings and down about the same on FantasyDraft. I haven’t really connected all the pieces in a perfect lineup just yet, but we’re only two weeks in so plenty of time left to grind it out.
I felt like my picks were reasonably solid last week (although I had one Twitter troll disagree and he let me know). Yes, Russell Wilson was hot garbage but I was higher on Rivers if you weren’t playing any of the “Big 4” last week (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan). Ty Montgomery was the lock of locks for me last week and he didn’t disappoint. Melvin Gordon was his usual inefficient, high volume self. James White returned +4x his salary. Julio wasn’t what we were hoping for but he also didn’t kill you. Hogan and Allen scored 18.8 and 22 points, respectively which is quite useful for their mid $5,000 salaries. Fleener also went darn near 4x return as well. I got off of Diggs once I heard Sam Bradford was out so if you still played Diggs then you need to look in the mirror on that one. I did get onto some J.J. Nelson once John Brown was ruled out which turned out to be the play if you wanted to win a big gpp. All in all, I thought the process was solid for week 2 despite the Twitter troll’s objections. Now onto week 3…
Week 3 Preview
Quarterbacks
I typically like to find value at the QB position, but if you’re paying up I think Aaron Rodgers (7,300DK / 13,700 FDraft) is the play. He has both the highest floor and has as much upside as any QB.
The Saints have been shredded for 777 yards and 6 tds through 2 games…next up, a home game with Cam Newton (6,600/12,600). I’m not a “Cam Guy” really; watching him throw 97 mph fastballs 8 feet over guy’s heads is mind-numbing. But a date with this Saints defense should cure some ills and if he can’t get right in this spot then it’s fair to start questioning Cam’s long term career arc as he’s just not a polished passer and he’s shied away from running like he has in the past. We need the running upside he provides in DFS to ship a gpp with him as our QB.
In an effort to fuel Twitter trolls, my gpp YOLO play of the week is Andy Dalton (5,100/10,100). He’s been baaaaad so far this year. But this is a game flow play as I expect the Packers to score points so Dalton to A.J. Green looks like a contrarian stack in gpps hoping they can pile up points in “Bortles Time.”
Running Backs
If you’re playing Thursday lock contests, Carlos Hyde (5,200/10,200) seems too cheap. We like RBs at home and I don’t think the Rams have enough fire power on offense to force the 49ers to play from behind by multiple tds.
We finally get a discount on Le’Veon Bell (8,800/16,600). Bell hasn’t been the All-World back that we are accustomed too but this might be the cheapest we get him all year. Bell saw increased volume last week with 31 touches. Touches = opportunity = fantasy points.
Jay Ajayi (7,700/14,500) played 64 of 68 snaps last week versus the Chargers. He gets the abhorrent Jets who have allowed two straight 100 yard games to open up this season. An RB getting all the snaps versus a putrid defense? Yes, please.
3 additional value options…Gillislee, Crowell, McCaffrey.
Wide Receivers
Deshaun Watson has targeted DeAndre Hopkins (6,200/11,700) on over 50% of his attempts this year. The Texans play at the Patriots this week and should trail early and throw it often. He has 29 targets in two games so far this year so book him for another 12 targets on Sunday.
I mentioned A.J. Green (8,100/15,300) earlier and he’s in a similar boat as Hopkins here against the Packers. He’s the primary option on a team that should be playing from well behind. He’s probably not a cash play but I think his volume/upside/ recency bias make him an elite gpp play.
This week’s J.J.Nelson play might be Rashad Higgins (4,000/7,800). After Corey Coleman broke his hand last week Higgins stepped in and went 7 rec for 95 yards on 11 targets. Anyone capable of 10+ targets needs to be on our radar and it’s only gravy when he’s dirt cheap.
3 additional value options…Pryor, Demaryius and Amari as their counterparts both went off last week, zig when they zag.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (5,000/9,300) gets a dream matchup this week, home against the Giants. Ertz has been a target monster for Carson Wentz since the middle of last season. The Giants have surrendered 12 rec and 2 tds through the first two games of 2017.
The Redskins have allowed a league high 203 rec yards to TEs so far this year. Jared Cook (3,100/6,000) has been reasonably involved in the Raiders passing attack. There’s some concern over the Raiders traveling east for a 1pm start but with Josh Norman on the outside blanketing Cooper or Crabtree, the middle of the field could be “The Kitchen” for Cook (see what I did there?)
Jack Doyle (3,600/7,000) had nice chemistry with newly minted starter Jacoby Brissett last week snagging 8 of 8 targets for 79 yards. The TE is often a young QBs best friend. The Browns also got torched by 63 year old Ben Watson to the tune of 8 rec for 91 yards last week.
Team Defenses
Here are my top 3 defenses for the week:
- Patriots (3,700/7,400) Pats -13.5 home faves, pair him w/ Gillislee to complete the correlated RB/DEF stack.
- Eagles (3,000/5,900) Have you watched this Giants O-Line?!?
- Packers (3,400/6,700) Ditto on the Bengals O-Line…
Not a ton jumping off of the page really at defense. My general rule of thumb is take defenses who are home favorites. Except there’s 10 home dogs on the slate this week which spoils my plans for defenses.
That’s a wrap for week 3 folks. Troll Disclaimer: You probably aren’t going to win the DK Milly Maker this week. My apologies folks.