Wentz Upon A Time
If you are reading this, chances are you are either an Eagles fan, have Carson Wentz in fantasy football or both. Regardless of which reason, you more than likely know Wentz’s rookie season in Philadelphia was a roller coaster. The young Eagles quarterback went 9-7 as a starter with 16 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 3782 passing yards. It wasn’t exactly what Eagles fans were hoping for from their 2016 2nd overall pick, but it’s not easy to please Philadelphia fans.
Not All Carson’s Fault
Before we put the lack of sports success in the City of Brotherly Love completely on Wentz’s shoulders, it should be noted, he didn’t have much help last year. The team had a minimal rushing attack behind injury prone Ryan Mathews and “Too Small To Ball” Darren Sproles. Mathews lead all rushers with a whopping 661 yards.
The running backs were only the beginning. The wide receiving corp was even worse. It’s very hard on a rookie quarterback when your receivers struggle with the most important part of their job, catching the ball. The Eagles ranked 10th in the NFL last year for dropped passes at 4%.
5 Reasons To Be Optimistic
Carson Wentz has been afforded the opportunity that a lot of guys do not get coming out of a small school in college, the keys to the car from day 1. Not only did Jeffrey Lurie and Doug Peterson give Wentz the car, they upgraded all the specs to make it high performance. Some of the key offseason help Wentz got was at that afroementioned wide receiver and running back position. They also kept one of the best offensive lines from a year ago intact. Take all of the upgrades and Wentz’s natural abilty and you have the making of a quarterback that should see a big jump in productivity.
Reason #1: Wide Receivers With Skills
The wide receiver experienced significant upgrades with the additions or Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, and a pair of rookie receivers who will realistically help in the coming years. Alshon and Torrey bring hands, height and speed to the wide receiving corp in 2017. Alshon had only 1 drop in 92 targets last year and Torrey Smith can take the top off of any defense. Wentz had a measly 6.23 yards per attempt in 2016. With Smith running the 9 route, you have to see that number increasing. Along with touchdowns outside of 20 yards. Only 3 of his 16 touchdowns were over 20 yards last season. Another statistic I expect to jump.
Reason #2: Running Back Reliability
LeGarrette Blount may not have Ryan Mathews’ agility and speed, but he’s far more reliable in terms of health and ball security. Plus, Wendell Smallwood is a year wiser, and the Eagles added Donnel Pumphrey. When you have a running game that can keep safeties and linebackers honest, it takes a lot of pressure off a quarterback. Where Wentz may see a dip in numbers is his touchdowns inside the 5 yard line. Last year he passed for 8 touchdowns and ran 2 more. With Blount behind him grinding the ball he may see a slight dip.
Reason #3: Offensive Line Remains Intact
The Eagles had one of the best offensive lines in football in 2016, and its never a bad thing when you get a second year of that in front of you as a quarterback. Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks are among the best players in the NFL. Johnson is one of the best right tackles in the game. Wentz went 5-1 and completed 65% of his passes in six games with Lane Johnson in the lineup. Unfortunately he went 2-8 while completing 61% of his passes and throwing 2 times as many interceptions as touchdowns when Johnson was out of the lineup.
Reason #4: Working On Mechanics In Offseason
Wentz is in the process of tweaking his mechanics this offseason. He and his coaches believe his mechanics were a major factor in some of his inconsistencies last season.
“It’s coming,” said Eagles coach Doug Pederson, “I would say that obviously he’s been working extremely hard at everything we’ve done. He’s really understanding our offense and our scheme, and that’s part of it, too — making good choices and decisions with the ball. He’s been sharp. It’s exciting to watch him, and just excited now headed into camp.”
Reason #5: Sophomore Success – Becoming A Leader
Everyone has heard of the “Sophomore Slump” for NFL athletes, but what many don’t know is that it usually doesn’t apply to the quarterback position. As a matter of fact, 85.2% of quarterbacks in the league see an increase in performance their 2nd year in the league. This is attributed to becoming comfortable and becoming a leader. Quarterbacks are the leaders of an offense. Once they get that sense of leadership with teammates and accept the responsibilty of it being “their team” the faster good quarterbacks become better.
“For me, coming in last year, a little different story,” Wentz said. “I was just trying to get my bearings straight. I barely knew where the locker room was. A lot of things going on. It was pretty wild. Now, I’m just focusing on these guys, focusing on this playbook, so we can start building something special.
“It has come very naturally, organically, as a quarterback here, and being a leader kind of goes hand in hand. I’ve been looking forward to that, and I feel that it’s going to continue to grow every day.”
Here is a look at how other quarterbacks around the league improved from year 1 to year 2, including one of the greatest of all time.
Wentz Fantasy Football Projection
Fantasy owners are currently targeting Wentz in the later rounds as a QB2. He has undeniable upside given the natural progression NFL starters take between year 1 and year 2. Last season he finished as the #24 quarterback overall in fantasy behind names like Alex Smith and Sam Bradford. I expect Wentz to make a sizeable jump this year potentially breaking into the QB1 ranking at #12.
My projection for Wentz is 4325 yards, 31 touchdowns, 11 interceptions along with another 185 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. His current ADP is 12.09 where I expect him to stay through August. If you are a guy like me and wait on quarterbacks he could be your diamond in the rough for 2017. They only quarterback values I like more than Wentz is Carson Plamer in the 13th and Joe Flacco in the 14th in redrafts. For dynasty though I love Wentz.
Please leave your comments below and follow me on Twitter @TheFFAdvantage