Best Value Per Round Based On ADP
Finding that right value in each round is key to preparing for draft day. Here are my value picks for rounds 7-1. All ADP numbers are courtesy of fantasyfootballcalculator.com, and based off a 12 team PPR format.
One thing you may notice, there are no tight ends or quarterbacks on my list. For those of you that follow me, you know I like to stream both positions. Please feel free to comment below the article with your thoughts.
Please keep in mind, the players I am choosing are the guys, I believe have the best ADP for that round.
Round 7
Paul Perkins – RB (New York Giants) : ADP 7.03
Perkins ran for 456 yards on 112 carries and caught 15 passes for 162 yards in a part-time role. McAdoo has already named Perkins the starter. Give Perkins the combination of more touches with a better offensive line , I will give you a breakout fantasy starter. Anytime I can grab a starting running back on a high powered offense in the 7th round I will snatch him up quick. Other RBs in the currently going in the 7th? Cook, Henry, Woodhead, Gillislee, Riddick and Gore. Other than Gore none of these guys are clear cut starters and Gore is 34 years old. Give me Perkins.
Round 6
Willie Snead – WR (New Orleans Saints) : ADP 6.11
Snead broke out in 2015 with 69 catches, 984 yards and 3 TDs. He parlayed that in 2016 with another 72 catches, 895 yards and 4 TDs. He did that with Michael Thomas and Brandin Cooks on the field last year. With Cooks out this year, Snead will become a more featured target as Thomas will draw a lot of attention. When you have a player averaging 70 catches over the first two years of his career, and Drew Brees as a quarterback, its promising. When you can get that same guy in the 6th round, its fantasy!
Round 5
Larry Fitzgerald – WR (Arizona Cardinals) : ADP 5.08
Father time has not been able to catch up with Larry Fitzgerald. Fitz is entering his 14th season in the NFL and all he has done recently is a 7th best fantasy receiver in 2015 and followed up as the No. 11 fantasy receiver in 2016. So I ask you, would you take him as a WR3 on your team? I would and the 5th round is where I typically like to target the third best receiver on my team. Other receivers going in this round currently include Marshall, Tate and Bryant. None of which, are anywhere close to as consistent and Fitzgerald.
Round 4
Ty Montgomery – RB (Green Bay Packers) : ADP 4.11
The absolute definition of the word hybrid. A wide receiver converted running back last year by necessity, keeping the job by plan. Reports say Montgomery has put on mass and muscle to help him carry a full work load this season. Last year in his limited time in the back field he was able to average 5.9 yards per carry. Obviously I expect that to go down but he has the elusiveness to slip tackles and the ability to catch out of the backfield. He plays in a high powered offense and the Packers only have a few rookies behind him with no real threat of losing the starting job. I would be fine if he were my RB2 or Flex.
Round 3
Doug Baldwin – WR (Seattle Seahawks) : ADP 3.02
So again, depending on how you draft, and where you draft, by the 3rd round you will probably be looking for a WR1 or WR2. Dougie “Fresh” Baldwin easily fills that need for me. I consider Baldwin a WR1 in all formats. Baldwin proved the doubters wrong by bettering his 2015’s 78 catches, 1069 yards and 14 TD season with a 94 catches, 1128 yards and 7 TDs last season. Even though his touchdown total dropped, he still was a top 10 fantasy receiver for the second year in a row. Other receivers going in the third round I would take him over include K. Allen, Jeffery, A. Robinson, D. Thomas and Landry.
Round 2
Amari Cooper – WR (Oakland Raiders) : ADP 2.07
Amari Cooper is a 23 year old, 3rd year player, on a high powered offense that loves to throw the ball around. In his rookie season Cooper put up 72 catches, 1,070 yards and 6 TDs. In 2016 he increased those numbers with 82 catches, 1149 yards and 5 TDs, with almost the same amount of targets (130 in 2015 and 132 in 2016). Michael Crabtree turns 30 years old in September so I have to expect his productivity to slow down a little bit in 2017. This makes me believe Cooper will see an increase in targets this year. He will, however need to see an increase in targets, specifically in the red zone though to fill his second round value. None of Cooper’s 5 TDs last season came from inside the 30-yard line.
Round 1
LeSean McCoy – RB (Buffalo Bills) : ADP 1.08
LeSean “Shady” McCoy rushed for 1,267 yards and 13 TDs last season. In addition to his ground game he contributed, 51 catches, 356 yards and another TD through the air. All of this, while seeing touches and touchdowns being vultured by Mike Gillislee. The Bills believe so strongly in Shady, they let Gil walk this off-season and gave McCoy the keys to the car. The Bills are a team designed to pound the ball, so I have to assume McCoy is going to be the focal point of their offense. Another reason for this is the Bills constant injuries at receiver. If Sammy Watkins goes down, there’s only a rookie and unproven players to take up the slack. That could mean an even higher rate of catches for McCoy.
If I am sitting anywhere in the first 8 draft positions in this years draft I am comfortable knowing the worst case scenario I will get LeSean McCoy. who are the guys currently going ahead of him? D. Johnson, Bell, Elliott, A. Brown, Beckham, Julio Jones and Mike Evans.
Check Out 14-8
Hope you enjoyed reading this. If you would like to throw shade on any of my picks above, please do so in the comments below. Also, don’t forget to check out my ‘Best Fantasy Football Player Value Per Round Based On ADP: Rounds 14-8‘.
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