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From Bust To Must – Time To Buy Carlos Hyde

Posted By: Paul Lipko

I’m Sorry Carlos Hyde

Sometimes a person has to look in the mirror and admit they were wrong. Anyone that has read any of my fantasy football articles this summer will clearly knows I have not been very pro Carlos Hyde. Okay, that may be putting it nicely. I practically tried starting a Carlos Hyde prohibition movement back in June. So this is my apology to him. I may have been wrong, but I need you to make sure of it.

My Prejudgment Had Justification

In early June I wrote an article about players that I expect to be over drafted and ultimately bust in 2017. My article, which you can find here, listed Carlos Hyde as a guy I expected very little out of. Although I know his capability when actually on the field, it was his durability that worried me. Add that to the uncertainty of Hyde fitting into new head coach Kyle Shanahan’s style of offense. Hyde’s career rushing average is 3.1 yards per carry when the quarterback is under center, which is where is he is most of the time in Shanahan’s offense. Shanahan likes his running backs to run outside toward the tight end initially and then make a one-foot cut “downhill.” Hyde likes to dance in the backfield, make double-cuts off of two feet and is at his best when he bounces inside runs to the outside.

I won’t deny, it’s still very difficult for me to overlook his inability to bounce back from injury. But, I have had a change of heart. Why?

Can’t Hyde The Truth

Truth is, I never doubted the abilities of Carlos Hyde. Last year, on a disaster of a team, Hyde still manged to produce 88 scrimmage yards per game. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry, in a Chip Kelly offense that was able to demean players like LeSean McCoy and DeMarco Murray.

Now Hyde gets Kyle Shanahan, who’s pre-snap motion offense helped running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combine for 85 receptions for 883 receiving yards last season. Hyde has many of the same skills that Freeman and Coleman had. Some would even say he is more talented in the right offense. This could be his chance to shine.

Coming into camp there was concern that Hyde would be phased out of the offense for rookie Joe Williams. Unfortunately for Williams, training camp has gotten off to a slow start, and Hyde has created little doubt who the “guy” is in San Francisco.

Hyde’s ADP Dropping Is Good

The best thing about Carlos Hyde currently is the doubters. Since June Hyde’s ADP has dropped from 3.08 to the current 4.11. The chatter over the last few weeks about him being cut along with this documented injury concerns has led to the best thing that could have happened to fantasy owners. Would I be inclined to take Hyde in the third round right now? No, but I sure do lover him in the back end of the fourth round or maybe even falling into the fifth.

If Shanahan, can stay the course with Hyde and Hyde can stay healthy he very well could end 2017 as a top 10 fantasy running back. Unfortunately there is also the risk of him landing outside the top 50. In the three years Hyde has been in the league, he finished as the 55th best fantasy RB in 2014 and 2015. Last year, he finished as the 15th. The constant however is he has never played more than 14 games in any of these three years.  Will 2017 be different? Either way, with an ADP of 4.11, I wouldn’t mind getting 12-14 games out of him. Even with that minimal forecast, Hyde would finish as a top 25 RB with a lot of upside potential.

 

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Image courtesy of: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

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