Jordy Nelson Is Underrated?
Ask anyone who plays fantasy football who their top 5 wide receivers are, and its almost a guarantee you will not hear Jordy Nelson’s name. Why is he so underrated? Is it because he missed all of 2015 with an injury? Is it because he is 32 years old? Regardless of why he is continuously overlooked and undervalued, don’t follow the trend.
Right now, he is currently the 6th wide receiver going off the board, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. With an ADP of 2.02 I can’t help but wonder what this guy has to do to get any respect from fantasy owners.
Who’s Being Drafted Ahead Of Jordy
It’s obvious I don’t think Nelson should be drafted behind some of the receivers he currently is. So where should Jordy go? The number 3 wide receiver off the board. Plain and simple, he is at least the third best receiver in fantasy football.
So, what receivers are being drafted ahead of Jordy and what receivers should be drafted ahead of Jordy Nelson? The five receivers currently going ahead of Jordy in 2017 are Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr, Mike Evans and A.J. Green. These are the “Big 5” fantasy receivers of 2017? What? Has the entire fantasy world gone crazy?
Let me first say, if there were a “Big 3” for fantasy receivers, it’s stupid Jordy is not included, let alone “5”. Right away, A.J. Green needs to be eliminated. I am fine including the others in the Top 5, but not Green. I won’t deny A.J.’s ability, but I do question his Durability and productivity.
Jordy Over Who and Why
Along with A.J. I also believe Nelson should be drafted ahead of Mike Evans and Julio Jones. Now, before you lose your mind and stop reading and start tweeting, let me explain.
Mike Evans is a target machine and he is young on an up and coming offense. Just remember he played on an offense where he was the only true talent on the offensive side. Vincent Jackson saw his career basically come to an end, Austin Seferian-Jenkins was a huge disappointment at tight end and the Doug Martin exited the season early with an injury/suspension. With Martin expecting to return and the receiver positions getting a big boost this off season, Evans numbers may regress.
Julio is a monster every year in receptions, but his inability to play all 16 games has severely hurt fantasy owners over the years. Although his 2016 campaign didn’t look bad, it can best be described as inconsistent. Julio finishing as the 6th WR overall, it could have been a lot worse. Another season where he missed games, but he made up for those games with a Week 4, 300 yard performance. He finished 7 of his 14 games with over 100 yards, but also had 4 games with under 30 yards and 0 touchdowns.
Maybe, Nelson is not as physically gifted as Jones and Evans, but Jordy has two important things that these guys do not. An elite quarterback and a mediocre backfield! These variables help Jordy be the focal point of a pass happy offense, giving him an advantage in many important fantasy metrics. Here are just a few.
#1: Red Zone Targets
Yeah, I will consider Matt Ryan a very good quarterback that isn’t afraid to let it rip, but he relies heavily on his running backs to move the ball. This limits Julio’s production a bit, specifically in the red zone. Similarly, Jameis Winston isn’t afraid to spin the ball in Evans direction, the majority of his targets were between the 20’s. Over the last three season, Jordy has dominated the red zone in targets, while Evans and Jones have been really held down.
#2: Touchdowns
It’s no secret to fantasy owners, find a wide receiver that catches a lot of touchdowns, and you will not be disappointed with the outcome. In 2016, 5 out of the top 7 fantasy wide receivers had double digit touchdowns, including the top 4. In 2015, there were 10 WRs with double digit touchdowns and only 3 of them ended up outside the top 10. So, I think its safe to say, touchdown receptions are a huge contributor to fantasy elite wide receivers. How did Jordy compare to the other 4 receivers in this category?
#3: Receptions
All stats provided are based off of standard scoring. A lot of fantasy leagues use PPR (Points Per Reception) format. Does this affect my thinking based on the format of a league? Not at all. Although Jordy doesn’t typically pull in the 100+ receptions per year like Julio or Antonio Brown, he doesn’t fall off in this category either. As a matter of fact if you took each players average over the last three seasons, Jordy is still top 3.
#4: Fantasy Points
Let’s get into what really matters to owners, fantasy points. Has Jordy put up enough fantasy points over the last few seasons to warrant a top 3 tag? You better believe it. As a matter of fact, only Antonio Brown averages more fantasy points per season. Going a step further, looking at fantasy points per game, Jordy averages 13.8 FPPG. This puts him only behind Brown and Beckham. Coincidentally these are the only two guys I am drafting before Nelson in 2017.
I understand people may argue that these stats are skewed because of Jordy missing all of 2015. For me I judge players based on durability to play a full season vs partial seasons. I understand injuries happen, especially in the NFL. Jordy is not typically an injury risk. As a matter of fact, before missing all of 2015, Jordy only missed 7 games in 8 seasons. Oh, by the way, in the last two seasons Nelson has played he has never finished worse than second in fantasy receiver rankings.
Fantasy “experts” and owners need to stop throwing shade on the Great White Hope. Draft Jordy Nelson with confidence.
My 2017 Top 10 Fantasy Wide Receiver Rankings
Antonio Brown
Odell Beckham Jr.
Jordy Nelson
Mike Evans
Julio Jones
A.J. Green
TY Hilton
Dez Bryant
Doug Baldwin
Michael Thomas
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