Kenneth Dixon Out
Latest news out of Baltimore is second year back Kenneth Dixon would miss the entire 2017 season after surgery to repair his MCL. Even though Dixon was expecting to miss the first four games of the season for PEDs, this news rumbled the fantasy football community. The big question is, who benefits more Danny Woodhead or Terrance West? As of this article Dixon’s ADP was 9.04 as the 41st running back off the board. That was about 18 picks later than Danny Woodhead and 7 picks ahead of Terrance West.
How Does The News Impact Woodhead?
A lot of people on social media seem to think that the injury news will skyrocket Danny Woodhead’s value in fantasy. I tend to disagree. I don’t think it hurts Woodhead, but realistically owners will probably not see a huge change in the way the Ravens use him. Danny Woodhead is a third down specialist. He is not built to be an every down back. Last year in week 1 the Chargers experimented with that theory. Woodhead carried the ball 16 times for a solid 89 yards in week 1, but ended up tearing his ACL in week 2.
In PPR format, Woodhead is going to be great. Dixon’s injury all but insures Woodhead of getting back to his 70-80 catch type years.
How Does The News Impact West?
I’ve heard a lot of rumblings tonight on twitter. Fans are expecting the Ravens to go out and get a back. I don’t expect that to happen. They didn’t do it last year when Dixon missed time and they didn’t go it again this year. Even though they knew Dixon was going to miss games again.
West is more than a capable back. Last year he finish the fantasy season ranked 24th in points for standard scoring. That may not seem at that impressive, but remember, beside the first 4 weeks, West split snaps almost the entire year with Dixon. As a matter of fact Dixon played 40% and West played 39% of the offensive snaps last year, from weeks 9-17.During that same stretch West was the 25th ranked RB and Dixon was ranked 24th. Both caught approximately 30 passes and ran the ball at about 4.1 yards per carry. Virtually they were the same guy on the field.
So, if you take Dixon out of the equation and give that production to West, you have a Top 10 fantasy scoring back.
West – 193 carries
Dixon – 88 carries
Total – 281 carries
West – 774 yards rushing
Dixon – 382 yards rushing
Total – 1156 yards rushing
West- 5 rushing TDs
Dixon – 2 rushing TDs
Total – 7 rushing TDs
I believe Terrance West is fully capable to reach these numbers this season. I expect Terrance West to emerge as an RB2 with RB1 upside if he stays healthy and plays a full season.