What makes Ezekiel Elliott a top RB?
So you have one of the first three picks in your league this season. Its a lock you are going to get one of the “Big 3” fantasy running backs. LeVeon and DJ may go 1 and 2, but no worries, you’ll get Ezekiel Elliott(ADP 1.03). All the world is right for you. Right? Maybe. Maybe not!
So everyone clearly knows what Ezekiel Elliott did last year for fantasy owners. Elliott led the league in rushing yards with 1,631 and totaled 1,994 yards from scrimmage. Oh, by the way, he also gets to run behind arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. These are all facts. These are all the reasons owners need to draft him in the top 3 picks this year. But, are these numbers tell us enough about 2017?
The Curse of 300
Ezekiel Elliott was the Cowboys workhorse last year, running the ball 322 times. Since 2011 there have only been 5 other players in the NFL run the ball more times in a season. None of those 5 players played all 16 games the following season. Even more, none of those 5 guys finished better than 10th best fantasy running back the next year. As a matter of fact, 300 carries in a season has only happened 12 times, since 2011. Of those 12 times, only 1 time did the player finish in the top 5 for fantasy points the following season. (Marshawn Lynch, 2013)
The talk out of Dallas is they expect to decrease Elliott’s workload this season. Longevity of a talent like Elliott can’t be overlooked, even by a guy like Jerry Jones. It’s not surprising the Cowboys didn’t look to deal Darren McFadden, who is arguably one of the best back up running backs in the league.
Ezekiel Elliott: Standard vs. PPR
Obvious I make this argument based on certain types of leagues. If you are in a dynasty league there is no question Zeke has tremendous value. If you are playing in a standard scoring league, (which no one should be, standard scoring sucks!) again Elliott’s value is a bit higher. Right offense, plenty of opportunity to run the ball, etc.. However, if you are playing in a PPR formatted league, or at minimal 1/2 PPR, Elliott’s abilities begin to look a bit more modest.
Last year, there were 11 running backs that had over 50 catches. Think about that. 11 running backs had the same or more receptions as Dez Bryant. None of those 11 guys were named Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke only had 32 receptions in 2016, tying him with Matt Asiata for 28th most by a running back.
Who Do I Replace Elliott With In Top 3?
For me this is an easy one. If I have a top 3 pick I need a sure thing. Is Sure we can make the argument David Johnson is not a sure thing. We can also make the argument, LeVeon Bell can’t play an entire season. Both very valid arguments. David Johnson catches the ball like a WR and has a team built for what he does. Bell is just ridiculous. In the 18 fantasy relevant games Bell has played in 2 seasons he is averaging 23.7 FPPG.
So who’s the guy I replace Elliott with in my top three? How about a guy who has been in the top 6 for fantasy points every year since 2013? Give me Antonio Brown as the third guy off the board. How much more of a fantasy football resume do you need to make a top 3 draft pick? He produces every year.
Other Running Backs Who Could Out Play Elliott in 2017
Again, this is strictly in PPR or 1/2 PPR scoring formats.
- LeSean McCoy – Mike Gillislee is gone. 110 touches a 9 touchdowns have to go somewhere.
- Melvin Gordon – Avg’d 19.5 FPPG (PPR format) in 2016. More receptions than Elliott in 3 less games played.
- Jordan Howard – 5.2 Y/Rush in 2016. He will see more targets in 2017 to parlay last seasons 1300+ rush yards.
I’d love to hear your comments on this. I expect a lot of people to disagree with this. I can appreciate that as all of you that disagree will be wrong in 2017.
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