Daytona Recap
So NASCAR at Daytona last week was a hot mess. Like a hot chick that had 3 too many Malibu Bay Breezes. Just a sloppy, hot mess. I tried to warn everyone that the plate tracks bunch everyone up and concentrate the drivers into packs and any mishaps create “The Big One” (or several Big Ones). “Stacking the Back” was absolutely the strategy that won all the money last week on DraftKings with winning lineups deploying all 6 drivers from the 30th starting position or lower. In the end, Monster sponsored Kurt Busch took the checkered flag in the first NASCAR race with Monster as the title sponsor, hmmm….
Atlanta Preview
This week we move to Atlanta Motor Speedway, a 1.54 mile intermediate quad-oval, for the Folds of Honor Quiktrip 500. The drivers will circle the track 325 laps this week meaning we’re going to differ our strategy this week and want to try to capture some of those laps led and fastest lap points. Away from the plate tracks we have stronger correlations we can focus on toward the front of the field. Over the last 8 races here, the top 6 starting positions have led 59.8% of the laps run. Also noteworthy is the correlation between laps led (.25 DK points each) and fastest laps (.50 DK points each) which is coming in at a .67 R^2 value this week which can be interpreted that roughly 2/3 of the fastest laps are run by the lap leader. This is going to be a significant source of points this week if we can nail the lap leader. One caveat to the laps led and fastest laps correlation will be the segments; if a team decides to vary strategy and pit early or off cycle and get the fresh tires when the rest of the drivers stay out, he (she) will have a significant advantage to capture those elusive fastest lap points. We will want to keep an eye on how the segments affect this correlation going forward.
Top Tier (over $9,000)
Kevin Harvick is on the pole this week and one of the most talented drivers in the sport. He finished 2nd to Jimmie Johnson here last year and has the highest driver rating (110.0, 2nd highest is Johnson at 103.3) over the last 8 races at Atlanta. Harvick also boasts an average running position of 7.9 which is also the best over those 8 races. The only concern here is Harvick ran poorly at practices, 25th and 27th respectively. I’m willing to bet Harvick figures it out when the green flag drops and runs up front for most of the day and captures a handful of those laps led and fastest laps points.
Kyle Busch will be starting 3rd this week and has the talent to challenge Harvick for leading the most laps. Brad Keslowski will be starting 5th and ran 2nd fastest in practice 2 which should carry over to Sunday. His teammate Joey Logano will be starting right behind him in the 6th position and anytime those two guys get together they can make some magic happen and “Shake & Bake” their ways to the front.
Chase Elliott looked like he was going to win Daytona there for bit but eventually ran out of gas prior to the checkered. He ran very well at intermediate tracks last year and was the fastest car in practice 2 and could make some noise this week. Jimmie Johnson historically runs well at Atlanta and is starting 18th. He’s a good bet for place differential points this week, but my model is not projecting him to lead many laps limiting his upside. I think he’s my favorite GPP (guaranteed prize pool or tournament) play this week. He might be starting back far enough that an early caution might afford him some strategy options that could get him some fresh tires where the leaders might stay out. If he can in fact work his way to the front, the place differential points plus the laps led and fastest laps points will absolutely pile up.
Mid Tier ($8,900-$7,000)
Can Daytona champ Kurt Busch win the first two races of the season? The model likes him to finish inside the top 6 this week but I’m not sure will he accumulate enough points to win you a GPP.
Ryan Newman is the most interesting driver this week. If you get Newman right this week, you will make money. Newman is starting 2nd and ran very well in practices, 1st and 6th respectively. The problem is that Newman’s 83.8 driver rating over the last 8 Atlanta races is only 12th best over that span and that’s probably more indicative of the driver he is. I think I’m going to reserve Newman for GPPs only this week as a starting spot sandwiched between Harvick and Kyle Busch is fair to bet against the lap led and fastest lap points in cash games.
Matt Kenseth owns the 3rd best driver rating (102.1) at Atlanta over the last 8 races here and is starting 16th. He figures to find his way into the top 10 here.
Kasey Kahne is the play of the week for me in cash and GPPs. For the 2nd week in a row Kahne will be starting near the back of the field (29th this week) and he ran 7th fastest in both practices. He’s the place differential play this week as we can fit all the drivers we like to lead laps into our lineups.
Bottom Tier ($6,900 and under)
There’s honestly not a whole like I like down here this week. The scrubs qualified and practiced like scrubs but two guys at least catching my eye here are Ty Dillon starting 26th and Aric Almirola starting 30th. I think both of these drivers could capture 10-12 differential points with the possibility to score big if they can sneak into the top 15.
Tentative Cash Lineup
Good luck the week PAS-Holes and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle.