How do you measure risk vs. reward players during your fantasy football draft?
When it comes to fantasy football, player durability is key. In the real world, when an NFL player gets injured, the saying is, “Next Man Up!”. That isn’t as simple when you only have roughly 16 players on your team and a limited bench. When drafting players, owners really depend on the sturdiness of the players they pick. Typically, players with a history of not finishing a full season, go into a free fall on draft day. I’ve selected a few players that have suffered the injury bug multiple times in their career, and are making fantasy owners apprehensive.
Jamaal Charles
Charles has been one of the biggest disappointments to fantasy owners over the last two seasons. Jamaal had three consecutive seasons, from 2012-2014, with over 1000 yards rushing and 200 yards receiving. His best year came in 2013 when he put up 1287 yards rushing and 693 yards receiving to go along with 19 total TDs. He basically carried fantasy owners to championships. Since 2014, however, Charles has not played more than 5 games in a season, while being drafted in the first two rounds of each seasons fantasy draft. The fear and unknown has been planted into fantasy owners everywhere. Coming into 2017 Charles cannot be considered any more than a flyer with a crowded backfield in Kansas City.
My Predicted Draft Position: RB #28 Overall Pick #85
Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen has the talent of a Tier 2 or even Tier 1 wide receiver, but the guy can’t stay on the field. Through his first four seasons in the NFL, Allen has only played 38 games. Over the last two years, Allen suffered early season ending injuries and was only able to play 9 total games. This was bad news for fantasy owners, since he was typically drafted within the first three roundz of both years. Now we enter 2017 and although his talent level hasn’t dropped, his dependability and expectation levels have. Tough to put your hopes of a WR1 on this guy, even though he has the talent to be just that. If you can get him as your WR2 and he stays healthy in 2017 your team should make a run for a title.
My Predicted Draft Position: WR #18 Overall Pick #35
Rob Gronkowski
It’s obvious some players get longer leashes that others. It helps when you are “The Gronk” and people love you because of your personality and god given talent. It also helps when you play the tight end position like a wide receiver. 2017 will be different, as I expect Gronkowski’s draft position to certainly fall. Gronk has been a perennial top two round pick for the last three seasons. . Now on his 4th back surgery, and not playing a full season since 2011, owner tolerance is wearing thin. If he can complete 2017 off the IR, he becomes another steal in your draft. I still consider his talent elite, but Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce are waiting to take his place.
My Predicted Draft Position: TE #1 Overall Pick #27
Adrian Peterson
A player that has proven in the past to be one of the worthiest of risk vs. reward players, we have Adrian Peterson. Arguably one of the best running backs to ever play football, injuries have begun to hinder his true value. Once considered a dynasty keeper, now the struggle to figure out if he is worth anything before round three is upon us. Coming back from a knee injury isn’t anything new for AP. In 2012 Peterson proved the fantasy owners he can bounce back from a season ending injury to rush for over 200 yards. Since then, however, he has had 2 season in which he didn’t make it past week 4. If that was alarming enough, he turn 32 years old in March and faces the possibility of not being in Minnesota for the first time in his career after this off season. So lets do the math, injury concerns, age and the uncertainty of a new team spell another season where Adrian “All Day” Peterson will be either under drafted or over drafted. What end of this will you be on?
My Predicted Draft Position: RB #14 Overall Pick #33
-Lipko
Twitter: @Paul_ThePAS