Its February, and that means it’s time to start thinking about fantasy football. If you are anything like me, and lost your league championship by .06 points this past season, you’re already ready for next season. Dedicated and slightly obsessive fantasy football players are always thinking about next year’s draft. Knowing where you can expect players to be drafted will help you better prepare for your own targeted players.
Here are my current 1st round projections for 2017 to help all you fantasy football junkies get your off-season fix.
Pick #1
David Johnson: First off, my draft board is probably the easiest decision. David Johnson led all running backs and wide receivers in fantasy points, by a landslide. Johnson finished with 20 total touchdowns and will continue to be the bell cow in Arizona. With the return of Larry Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer, DJ is all but ensured another solid season for fantasy owners.
Pick #2
Julio Jones: Julio is first wide receiver off my board simply because of how dangerous he and the Atlanta Falcons offense is. Even with a new offensive coordinator coming in, Atlanta will continue to be a pass heavy offense and Julio is their stud. Julio missed two games last season but still managed to finish 6th in total points for wide receivers, all while battling a season long toe injury. He is expected to undergo off season surgery on his toe, and should be 100% by OTAs.
Pick #3
Antonio Brown: If Ben Roethlisberger returns next season, the Steelers offense will be loaded on offense, especially at wide receiver. AB may see a decrease in catches and touchdowns with return of Martavius Bryant. You can’t overlook Brown’s route running ability and overall durability. That is why I kept him in my top 3. In the event Ben applies for his AARP card early, Antonio Brown will almost certainly be overvalued and drafted too early. Let that happen.
Pick #4
Le’Veon Bell: Unlike Antonio Brown, Bell’s success is not as dependent on the return of Big Ben. Le’Veon will get the workload regardless of who is under center and the offensive line for the Steelers is designed to block for this guy. After missing the first three games last season Bell still managed to finish third in fantasy scoring for running backs. He may play next season under the franchise tag with a big money contract on the line in Pittsburgh.
Pick #5
Ezekiel Elliott: Some owners will overvalue Zeke after his amazing rookie season. I can’t see him going inside of the top 5 but if the four players mentioned above are all gone and you are sitting at 5, go ahead and take him. The kid has freakish talent and an offensive line that could have made Cadillac Williams look like a Ferrari. My only concern is the potential for a sophomore slump. Remember, Trent Richardson ran for 950 yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie for the Browns. Yeah, I know, I’m comparing apples to meatloaf.
Pick #6
Mike Evans: Last season, Evans gave owners everything they wanted and then some. His chemistry with Jameis Winston was evident with his league leading 173 targets. The improvement needed for Evans to be considered a 1st round fantasy prospect comes with Winston’s accuracy. Evans only caught 55% of those targets for 1321 yards and 12 touchdowns. These numbers will see a considerable increase with an improved Winston.
Pick #7
Melvin Gordon: On the opposite side of the sophomore slump is what should have been the comeback player of the year. Gordon didn’t get the distinguished honor of this award because of being hurt and not playing the last 4 games of the regular season. I believe he deserved this award running for 997 yards and 10 touchdowns in a little more than 12 games. The Chargers love giving this guy the ball inside the red zone, and he delivers.
Pick #8
Odell Beckham Jr: OBJ disappointed mightily until late last season. By the time, he and the Giants offense got it together it was much too late. Too late to make up the points he failed to bring in for fantasy owners that drafted him in the early 1st round. Although he is an elite receiver in the league his inconsistency and overall unpredictability leaves me skeptic and landing him in my number 8 spot.
Pick #9
Jordy Nelson: The man that did receive the NFL comeback player of the year in 2016 comes in at the number 8 spot for me. As if you didn’t notice but 1st round fantasy drafts are starting to be overtaken by wide receivers and for good reason. Think about the fact that Jordy is the 5th receiver on my board and he caught 97 passes for 1257 yards and 14 touchdowns. I dare you to find another player, I didn’t name, get you these types of numbers.
Pick #10
LeSean McCoy: Historically the worst position to draft, the 10th is always the wild card pick. Most of the Tier 1 wide receivers and running backs are gone. Do you take the top quarterback off the board, a tier 2 RB or follow Producer Cavi by taking Gronk? Gronk is not the option. Go with Shady McCoy. One of the most electrifying backs in the league. Last year he went for over 1500 total yards and 14 touchdowns. Enough to get him in my 1st round.
Pick #11
TY Hilton: This pick may have some of you shaking your head and saying no way, but hear me out. TY has been over 1000 yards and 130 targets in each of the last 4 seasons. He realistically has two drawbacks, not enough touchdowns, and an inconsistent Andrew Luck. I believe Luck has a bounce back season and TY is a huge recipient of that resurgence. There are only three wide receivers, over the last four seasons, averaging more fantasy points. They are all taken.
Pick #12
Aaron Rodgers: I am never an advocate for taking a quarterback in the first round. The QB position is so deep and if you think back to last season, Matt Ryan was probably a late draft pick, proving you can wait. The exception to the rule, in my opinion, is Aaron Rodgers. The prototype for consistency, he has been a top tier quarterback in every season since 2013 where he got injured. in 2016 he finished with 4428 passing yards 40 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. He also gave his fantasy owners another 369 yards with his feet and 4 more touchdowns. Tier 1 QB with consistency.
That concludes Round 1 of my 2017 mock fantasy draft. If you agree or disagree with my selections please feel free to comment below. Check out rounds 2 and 3 below.
Paul’s 2017 Fantasy Mock Draft: Round 2
Paul’s 2017 Fantasy Mock Draft: Round 3
-Lipko