Daytona 500
Contrary to football, NASCAR begins the season with their Super Bowl, the Daytona 500 (2pm ET, Sunday). Daytona International Speedway is a big, fast, 2.5 mile track. Daytona is one of the two tracks that use restrictor plates (Talledega is the other) which are designed to govern the speeds of the racecars and lends itself to “pack racing.” Drivers will be bunched together all afternoon and the announcers will frequently reference “The Big One.” The Big One is the term given to any massive wreck at a plate track that piles up several cars and has you hoping your DraftKings drivers somehow avoid the catastrophic DNFs.
The restrictor plate tracks are unlike any of the traditional tracks in the circuit. The pack racing means one blown tire can take out 15 cars behind him. It is this ultra-high variance at restrictor plate tracks that coincides with the weakest correlations of any tracks in my DraftKings scoring models. Ah, so you’re deflecting any level of accountability the very first race you ask? Well, kinda. You just can’t predict when The Big One will happen, where it will happen, and whether or not your drivers will get caught up in it. I’ll be sure to come with hotter takes in the coming weeks but there are still plenty of plays I like this week.
Top Tier
So Chase Elliott is on the pole so we want him this week right? I will probably have zero shares of Elliott this week. With only 200 laps around the track and DraftKings scoring of .25 point per lap led Elliott’s downside of losing points due to his place differential far outweighs his upside. The same point holds true for most of the top 5 drivers; they will carry a lot of risk in cash games as a -30 plus point effort can sink your cash lineups in a hurry.
Of the top 5 spots, Denny Hamlin is my favorite option. He has the highest driver rating over the last 8 races at Daytona. Dale Jr. will garner high ownership as the most popular driver in NASCAR but I will likely be underweight on him. Basically you are not going to win your DraftKings contests with the drivers starting at the front here as the 200 laps limit the ability to pile up points with laps led and fastest laps while the risk of losing position differential points is a serious concern.
So where do we start considering the upside potential to gain place differential points versus the risk of sliding back in the pack? For me it’s Brad Keslowski starting 7th. I’m still moderately concerned he’s starting too high to really pile up the points but I think his Penske teammate, Joey Logano, will join forces and work their ways to the front of the field. Logano is his own right is one of my favorite plays this week starting 15th. He’s more than capable of finishing inside the top 5, gaining enough place differential points to warrant his selection.
Value Plays
A proven strategy at Daytona is to “Stack the Back.” I am going to be generating most of my plays this week from starting position 20th or lower. Kyle Busch starting 21st is a lock for me. He’s arguably the most talented driver in the sport and if he avoids the aforementioned Big One, he should find himself in the mix during the last 20 laps. This will offer tons of upside with the place differential points.
Jimmie Johnson will be started at the back of the field but will be scored as if he’s starting 24th. He’s still very much in play even starting in the back of the pack. He’s an elite driver so he should make up those 15 spots quickly and look for him to pair up with teammate Kasey Kahne to work their ways toward the front. Kahne is also a fantastic play in his own right starting 26th and as soon as the 48 finds him in the field both will exceed their starting positions.
From 30th on back you can start any of these guys in tournaments and have a realistic chance of winning because they afford the highest potential to score points by climbing the field and scoring those place differential points. Heck in a cheap $3 contest load up all 6 drivers from this area and have some fun. Any of these guys can be cash game fillers also depending on the higher tier selections. Sadler, Gaughan, Allmendiger, Buescher, Blaney, Jones, Menard…I like all of these guys this week to exceed value. It takes only one 10 car pile-up in the middle of the field and all these guys hit value.
Martin Truex Jr.
Yes, he’s getting his own section this week. He’s the hands down best play of this week. He will be in all of my lineups. He’s arguable a top 5 talented driver in the circuit and he’s starting 35th. Let other players make the mistake of not playing him. I don’t care if he crashes during the first lap, the process says play him even if the results don’t.
DK Cash Lineup (as of Saturday night)
Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. Kasey Kahne, Ryan Blaney, A.J. Allmendinger
That will wrap us up here folks! Good luck to everyone this week. And remember any of the drivers I recommended get caught up in The Big One, well that’s Daytona…
-Taylor