Daily Fantasy Sports. Everyone plays it. Some of us like the challenge of budgeting the perfect lineup, some of us like the freedom where our rosters can change week to week; (unlike season long rosters where one bad trade or injury can ruin a season!), and other players like the high stakes gambling aspect. There is something for everyone.
Every week hundreds of thousands of players go to sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo DFS, and others.This article is going to look at some top plays for Cash games, Tournament/GPP games, and Top Stacks of the Week on DraftKings for Week 13.
Tournament/GPP
The goal of any tournament lineup is to score the most points, because tournaments are usually tens of thousands of players, with a very small pool of top cash prizes. On average, less than 25% of all players get paid, with some of them simply being a return on investment, which means you have less than a 1/4 chance to make a profit. With the odds already against you, you need the guys who will score the most points for the best price.
Quarterbacks:
#1 Drew Brees
Price: $7600
Projected: 24.31
Opponent: DET
Drew Brees is facing the Detroit Lions who’ve allowed 22 passing touchdowns in just 11 games this year. The Lions last four games have been against Brock Osweiler, Sam Bradford, Blake Bortles, and Sam Bradford again, on a short week. In the Lions first 7 games, they averaged allowing 348 yards passing per game. Against that trio in their last four games, they have only averaged allowing only 230 passing yards per game. Expect some regression to the mean, because Drew Brees is a future Hall of Famer. In his last six games, he’s averaged 309 yards passing per game, averaging 3 TDs per game (16 passing and 2 rushing) with a ridiculous 76% completion percentage, never completing less than 70% over that span! The Detroit Lions have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 74% of their passes on the season, including Sam Bradford completing 31-37 (83.4%) on Thanksgiving. Considering how bad the Lions defense is, it’s a sure bet that Brees will top 300 yards passing and get the +3 bonus on DraftKings. Only one other QB this week is projected over 20 DFK points, and Brees is projected for 24.31. He’s the safest tournament play, with a $313 price per point, which is only comparable to Andy Dalton and Tyrod Taylor values. At under $8000, he needs to be played in every cash lineup you have.
#2 Andrew Luck
Price: $7300
Projected: 19.03
Opponent: NYJ
After missing Thanksgiving with a concussion, Luck will have had 15 days off to recover because he’s playing on Monday Night. That will surely be enough against a lowly Jets secondary. The Jets defense does one thing well: stop the run. Sorry Frank Gore. But what they don’t do well is stop the pass. They’ve allowed five touchdowns this year of 40 or more yards, with three of them being 70 or more yards. They’ve been beaten time and again all season by blown coverage. Darrelle Revis has been a shell of his prime this year being burned by names like Marquise Goodwin, Malcolm Mitchell, and Sammie Coates. Andrew Luck has one of the best receivers in the game at his disposal, and they’re going to be targeting Revis all game, cracking big yardage catch after catch. It’s not just Revis either, The Jets’s safeties have been absolutely abysmal at stopping receivers from getting in to the top of the secondary, which is why so many of those long yard scores happened. It doesn’t matter the context in fantasy football, all that matters is the final stats whether by hook or crook. Look at Kirk Cousins last week. He threw deep bombs all game and wracked up yardage without actually playing well. That’s what Luck is going to do this week. “Andrew the Giant” will be just that this week against the Jets.
Running Backs:
#1 Matt Forte
Price: $5900
Projected: 17.18
Opponent: IND
Don’t let last week fool you. Forte had only 13 rushes for 27 yards. That was his 12th worst game of his career. Prior to that, he was averaging 93 rushing yards on 21.8 rushes per game with 4 TD in four games over the previous month. Forte is the 9th ranked PPR RB this year, which shows that game was simply an outlier. The Colts have been thrashed by all-purpose backs in their last six games, averaging allowing 100 yards rushing per game! As I just mentioned, Luck is going to ping pong and pepper the Jets defense, but Forte will actually be a beneficiary to this, as he can also catch balls in the flat to stop the clock in 2 minute drills. That comes in very handy in PPR leagues, and is a very nice bonus for owners this week. DraftKings is not respecting Forte this week, which also means he will probably be low owned after last weeks clunker, but get him in your lineups at only $343 price per point. His ceiling is as high as any other running back on the slate, for $1000-2000 less than elite choices. He’s both value and points driven, and thus a great tournament play.
#2 Le’Veon Bell
Price: $9200
Projected: 21.46
Opponent: NYG
Bell isn’t the best value on the board, but every week he’s one of the league’s top scorers. Over his last five games he’s averaging 26.5 DFK points, which happens when you average 7.4 receptions per game in that span (which for the record is as many as most WR2’s this year). He’s gone over 100 yards rushing in consecutive games with a rushing TD in three straight. Le’Veon Bell is matchup proof, but a salary cap eater, so play him this week at your own risk. He’s one of the worst “values” of the week, but in terms of guaranteed floor, he’s your best play. He’s had over 20 DFK points 75% of his games this year.
Wide Receivers:
#1 Mike Evans
Price: $8600
Projected: 19.53
Opponent: SD
If you haven’t yet, accept that Mike Evans is the #2 WR in the NFL. In a game most expected Mike Evans to struggle last week against Seattle, “Big Mike” responded with 2 touchdowns- in the first quarter. Jameis Winston should just throw the ball to him 40 times a game. He could catch at least 20, minimum, regardless if he was triple teamed. His only comparison is Randy Moss. That was the last time I remember seeing such a physical and skilled receiver play football with ease. Over his last four games, he’s got 425 yards and 4 TD, averaging 24.6 DFK points.Against San Diego who is averaging allowing 178 yards per game to receivers this year, the Chargers lost Jason Verrett earlier this year to a torn ACL, and last week lost Brandon Flowers to a concussion and his status is questionable for Week 13. Look for Mike Evans to exploit the fact no one on this Chargers team can cover him. Not only that but the Chargers have failed to bring pressure on opposing QBs, with only 20 sacks in 11 games, with a fifth of those coming from Joey Bosa who missed the first month of the year. Winston is going to have plenty of time to find his big receiver. Expect another big game for Evans, get him in your lineups!
#2 Michael Thomas
Price: $6900
Projected: 16.28
Opponent: DET
Michael Thomas has asserted himself as the Saints #1 WR, averaging over 8 targets per game which is best on the team. He entered the year behind Cooks and Snead and he has exceeded both of them on not just the depth chart, but in Drew Brees’s eyes and trust circle and that is huge. Brees loves throwing across the field to Thomas who is often matched up against lesser corners with the attention going towards Cooks. Last week Brees showed teams why they need to respect Michael Thomas as he didn’t even target Brandin Cooks, and Michael Thomas caught 2 of Brees’s 4 touchdowns on his way to 30+ DFK points against a secondary much better than the Lions. We have Thomas as our #8 WR this week in a plus matchup and projected for 0.62 TDs, which is our sixth highest mark of the week.. At only $6900, start him in tournaments and get some value in with the points. Why pay more for less?
Tight End:
Kyle Rudolph
Price: $4100
Projected: 12.82
Opponent: DAL
All eyes were on the Vikings/Lions game on Thanksgiving. While dinner was being served across the country, millions of football fans watched Sam Bradford pass four yards at a time, but he found Kyle Rudolph for a team-high 9 receptions on 10 targets, only Adam Thielen was targeted more. Rudolph topped expectations last week across the board and didn’t get in to the endzone. Expect that to change tonight against the Cowboys who struggle to stop the pass and were obliterated by Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis last week, allowing 42 DFK points combined to both. With Walker on bye, and Reed and Gronk questionable, Rudolph has the highest TD/TGT ratio this week. Rudolph is our best TE play of the week, and he’s a bargain and a half!
Cash Games (50/50’s)
The point of cash games is to finish in the top half of the prize pool, as everyone gets paid the same amount. Doesn’t matter if you’re 1st of 50th, you get the same, so the goal is just to get there. The goal is to get guys who will launch you over that line and guarantee a payday. The best kind of plays are guys with safe floors, with good price per point, and low ownership.
Quarterbacks:
#1 Colin Kaepernick
Price: $6100
Projection: 16.79
Opponent: CHI
Whether you hate him or you love him, Kaepernick has reminded us why he’s one of the best fantasy QBs in the league. He’s no Tom Brady, his team is bad, but Kaepernick is a dual threat, rushing for more yards last week than his running back on less attempts. Don’t let any personal bias effect your chances to win money in daily fantasy football, ride Kaepernick to big winnings this week. Over his last 32 games, Kaepernick has averaged 6.5 yards per rush attempt, giving his fantasy owners a +3.3 point bonus on the ground on average. He doesn’t need to pass for 300 yards on DFK to get the same bonuses as Drew Brees or Tom Brady who don’t run the ball. At $6100, his $363 price per point is a great value. Because the 49ers defense is so bad, expect this game to be very high scoring, allowing Kaepernick to keep the ball in his hands and make plays all day.
#2 Kirk Cousins
Price: $6400
Projection: 17.75
Opponent: ARI
It was only a matter of time until Cousins found himself here. DraftKings still hasn’t adjusted his price to reflect the fact he’s a top 8 QB in the league quite yet. That should change this week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him cost at least $700 more next week. Over his last four games, he’s averaging 26 DFK points per game, topping 400 yards passing twice! He didn’t throw a TD pass in Week 1, but he’s got a passing TD in ten straight games since then, averaging 2 TDs per game. Being carried by the emergence of Jamison Crowder, Cousins has found himself with legitimate weapons all over the field this year. He’s got two veteran receivers in Garcon and Jackson who make appearances when they’re needed most, like Jackson catching a 70 yard TD against Dallas on Thursday night. Cousin’s isn’t the most efficient or fundementally sound, but he does only have 1 INT in his last 5 games. Right now, he’s one of the best options on the slate. Patrick Peterson went down last week with a knee injury and will be a game time decision, but will most likely miss the game, and even if he doesn’t he will not be himself, leaving Cousins a big opportunity to target him to try to make him work on a bad knee.
Running Backs:
#1 Frank Gore
Price: $4900
Projection: 15.77
Opponent: NYJ
This is a bit risky against an elite Jets rushing defense on Monday night after a clunker against Pittsburgh, but Gore will have extra rest coming into this matchup, having 11 days off, which is almost like an extra bye week. Don’t expect too much from Gore, but if you’re looking for a great value play his $311 price per point is the best of any QB1/RB1/WR1 or WR2 this week! The Jets are averaging 80 yards on the ground per game, but it’s something else you need to keep an eye out for that really intrigues me, and as a Jets fan, this is why Frank Gore will be in winning lineups this week: The Jets passing defense is suffocating in the redzone. When they don’t have to rely on safeties making plays, with short yardage to go, they’re one of the best defenses in the league. That’s something Todd Bowles gets out of his defense year after year. So if the Colts can drive down the field, look for Gore to grab some redzone looks and get in the endzone from within the 3 yard line.
#2 Kenneth Dixon
Price: $3700
Projection: 10.44
Opponent: MIA
As I pointed out in my weekly Aces and Deuces: RBs Week 13 article, Kenneth Dixon is a special kind of talent just coming into his own. His price is exceptional for cash games, and his role on offense is just emerging, keeping his price and ownership low. With 17 touches last week, look for more of the same this week. The Dolphins defense is down a couple run stopping defensive ends this week. Dixon is a multi-talented play making back who can and will catch passes out of the backfield and run up field. He isn’t quite in the elite level yet, but David Johnson was in a similar role last year behind Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington. Since Flacco can’t throw deep, look for Dixon to be heavily involved this week in the checkdown game. For $3700 his value can’t be beat, and he has a very high ceiling. As we also mentioned in Aces and Deuces, his 10 point projection comes without a TD, so if he gets in the endzone, you’re getting RB1 output at a RB4 price.
Wide Receivers:
#1 Tyreek Hill
Price: $4600
Projection: 12.61
Opponent: ATL
When you need a safe floor in 2016, look no farther than Tyreek “The Freak” Hill. What a weapon Andy Reid has discovered. He’s tried and failed multiple times to find guys that can do it all in the past, notably De’Anthony Thomas and Chris Conley, but he finally has a guy who can beat you six different ways on Sunday, like your stepfather. Hill’s game Sunday night against the Broncos was not only out of left field, he scored three different ways! Punt return, receiving, and rushing. He’s got 7 total touchdowns this year, which is more than most top tier RB and WR, so why isn’t his price much higher? Get this man in your lineups before he literally catches fire and let him carry you to victory. Lets not forget he’s playing the Falcons, and we learned last week that Desmond Trufant will miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Hill has become Alex Smith’s favorite target, averaging 8.3 targetsper game over his last four games. His projection is low because we take into account his whole season, and over the first six weeks he averaging less than 3 targets per game. In the last month, he’s been an elite WR1/2 play. Just like Dixon, he’s priced at WR4 values, so for cash games, he’s one of the best on the board.
#2 Davante Adams
Price: $6300
Projection: 15.75
Opponent: HOU
Get used to seeing Davante Adams in this spot as long as his price remains where it is. He’s got 3 TD over his last 18 receptions. He’s averaging 18.3 DFK points over his last four games, and for the record he had 25 receptions for 206 yards in the two games prior to that! Adams is Aaron Rodgers look to make plays, especially in the redzone. His 8 touchdowns have been spread all over the season as he’s been surprising fantasy owners all year. He’s already exceeded his career high in receptions, and has almost matched his career total in receiving yards in just 11 games. The Texans won’t have an answer for Adams. Let him put 20+ DFK points up for only $6300 for your team. That’s $2,000 less than comparable options. He’s either topping 100 yards or scoring again this week.
Tight End:
Vernon Davis
Price: $3300
Projection: 11.41
Opponent: ARI
If Jordan Reed can’t play Sunday, Vernon Davis will be a must start at that price. Yes he put up an 0-fer two weeks ago, but don’t be brought down by your bitter hatred of that single game as to why you can’t trust him, because excusing that game he’s averaging almost 14 DFK points per game his last five games, outside that.In the two games Reed missed earlier this year, he averaged 5 receptions for 82 yards. Expect a similar output here. We have him projected for 4.3 rec and 61 yards. With Kirk Cousins also in our cash game value plays, you should be stacking them both!
Top Stacks:
#1 New England Patriots (Brady, Blount, Lewis, Edelman)
They will be scoring points where others have failed in a cold December game against a Rams defense who isn’t going to know what hit them.
#2 Washington Redskins (Cousins, Kelly, Crowder, Davis)
Even against a good Cardinals defense, the Redskins have been on fire lately, putting up points in bunches. Win or lose, they’re going to do it again this week.
#3 Indianapolis Colts (Luck, Gore, Hilton, Moncrief)
They’re all over my top plays against a Jets defense that has a lot of holes and allows big plays. When they played the Titans a few weeks ago with similar issues, they piled up chunk yardage and scores in a win.
Top Lineup (Cash Game ONLY):
QB D. Brees / $7100
RB M. Forte / $5900
RB M. Gordon / $7200
WR D. Adams / $6300
WR B. Cooks/ $6400
WR Q. Enunwa / $4500
TE K. Rudolph / $4100
Flex: T. Hill / $4600
D: Philadelphia / $3100
Top Lineup (GPP):
QB D. Brees / $7100
RB M. Gordon / $7200
RB R. Kelly / $4700
WR M. Evans / $8600
WR M. Thomas / $6900
WR T. Hill / $4600
TE K. Rudolph / $4100
Fle J. Witten / $3400
D: Miami / $2600