Walking It Back with Paulie Bagga Walnuts
It’s time to trade Jay Ajayi.. I know this seems ridiculous if not borderline stupid. Why would you consider trading a guy that has just had back-to-back games of at least 200 yards rushing? Not to mention that the only real competition he had for the starting job has decided to retire. Take all of that into consideration and read why now’s the perfect time to trade Ajayi.
Lets get into the facts. Ajayi on paper looks like a top tier RB over the last two games, but go back and watch all of the games he has played this year, including the last two. Watch closely and notice that if Ajayi doesn’t get a clean hole at the line of scrimmage he doesn’t break a lot of tackles. If he gets through the line and into the second level he is elusive, but that’s a big if. The reality is that the last two games Ajayi has played is what really put him on the map for fantasy football owners. So lets dive into those games a little.
First thing that stands out right away is the teams he’s played. Pittsburgh two weeks ago was were it all started. You know that same Pittsburgh Steeler team that is giving up an average of 150 total yards and over 1.5 touchdowns per game to running backs. To put that into fantasy perspective that is over 25 points per game to RBs. Last week it was against Buffalo, and although some people might think that the Bills have a good defense, those people would be wrong. Buffalo has given up the 13th most fantasy points this season averaging just under 24 points per game to running backs. So in short Jay Ajayi is the smart kid on the short bus.
Do you still think I sound like a dum dum? Ok, let’s take a look at Miami’s schedule for second half of the season. Ajayi faces the teams like the Los Angeles Rams, Baltimore Ravens and Arizona Cardinals in addition to the New York Jets twice. The latter two teams mentioned Ajayi plays during fantasy playoffs. Of the eight games Ajayi has left to play, 5 games are against defenses that rank in the top ten stopping the run.
Here is my final arguement. Jay Ajayi has peaked. Seriously, do you really believe that his last two games are going to be the norm for Ajayi? The only thing he can do is regress. Which means you are trading Ajayi at the top end of his value. I absolutely believe you can go get a WR1 like Odell Beckham or AJ Green right now for Jay Ajayi with no problem. Think about that for a minute. Ceiling for both of those recievers are far and away higher than what you will get from Ajayi rest of season.
I know most owners will say that the RB position is so short handed with higher level backs you wouldn’t consider trading Jay Ajayi, and I don’t expect you to trade him if you are hurting at the RB spot. However, if you have two running backs like Melvin Gordon and LeGarrette Blount I would without a doubt be shopping Ajayi for the top tier wide receiver. Don’t be star struck by a C Lister.
As Always,
You’re Welcome!